Bargain or Basement ?

[T.N.T]

Looking at the latest set of averages, there are some interesting figures for riders. Some you would expect to be much higher and some you may be suprised how high they are. So looking at riders with averages much the same, are they of equal standard or are rolling averages not showing a true record of a riders ability.


BLOCK 1 = Jason Doyle 7.39 is higher than Chris Harris 7.32, Rory Schlein 6.97, Maciej Janowski 6.92 and Peter Kildemand 6.90.

BLOCK 2 = Simon Gustafsson 5.28 is now lower than Kevin Wolbert 5.41, Josh Auty 5.45 and Seb Alden 5.38 but is higher than Nick Morris 5.19 ?

BLOCK 3 = Jacob Thorssell has really started to show his potential and holds a 3.33 average. Riders with a higher average are Ales Dryml 4.84, Denis Gisatulin 4.21, Kevin Doolan 4.20 and Dakota North 4.35.

BLOCK 4 = Peter Karlsson even reaching his mid 40's is on 8.62 compared to Krzysztof Kasprzak 8.48, Matej Zagar 8.51, Kenneth Bjerre 7.91 and Troy Batchelor 8.31



While I agree that rolling averages do work in certain instances, there is also a big floor in them as Martin Smolinski 6.75 and Ty Proctor 5.78 have been hitting big scores this season (even if one was from reserve !) but they still have modest averages when you look at what they are averaging in just 2013 matches. Smolinski in the EL matches is averaging 8.80 (9.66 inc BP) while Ty was averaging 6.92 (8.76) before injury ended his season. However the big suprise to me is who has the highest EL average so far in 2013 ?

Is it Tai with his brilliant form ? .... Is it the Turbo Twins ? ..... Surely Iversen ? ...... NO ! .... With a 9.83 average (10.50 inc BP) the top rider so far in 2013 is Hans Andersen !!!



On the other end, Chris Harris in 2013 is averaging just 6.43 (7.21), Darcy Ward 8.00 (8.47), Linus Sundstrom 5.65 (6.59) and shockingly we find Nicolai Klindt averaging just 3.12 (4.14)


ELITE LEAGUE MATCHES ONLY ....

Matej Zagar 14 69 7 155 9.39 8.99
Craig Cook 12 53 9 97 8.00 7.32
Magnus Zetterstrom 14 62 8 92 6.45 5.94
Kevin Wolbert 15 67 17 82 5.91 4.90
Kauko Nieminen 14 63 11 77 5.59 4.89
Ales Dryml 14 60 15 63 5.20 4.20
Artur Mroczka 11 42 2 46 4.57 4.38 OUT

Martin Smolinski 13 70 15 154 9.66 8.80
Jason Doyle 13 60 10 112 8.13 7.47
Danny King 14 63 10 114 7.87 7.24
Ben Barker 13 56 11 91 7.29 6.50
Chris Harris 14 61 12 98 7.21 6.43
Josh Auty 13 54 22 71 6.89 5.26
Nicolas Covatti 14 52 19 62 6.23 4.77

Scott Nicholls 16 77 18 149 8.68 7.74
Krzysztof Kasprzak 15 70 12 130 8.11 7.43
Grzegorz Zengota 17 83 12 137 7.18 6.60
Michal Szczepaniak 17 78 14 105 6.10 5.38
Oliver Allen 5 20 3 25 5.60 5.00 OUT
Aaron Summers 15 70 13 81 5.37 4.63
Stuart Robson 10 45 7 45 4.62 4.00
Adam Roynon 2 8 1 3 2.00 1.50

Bjarne Pedersen 18 89 4 183 8.40 8.22
Cameron Woodward 18 86 16 139 7.21 6.47
Lukas Dryml 13 61 9 85 6.16 5.57
Simon Gustafsson 19 87 11 106 5.38 4.87
Kim Nilsson 3 16 2 17 4.75 4.25
Timo Lahti 18 73 11 75 4.71 4.11
Adam Shields 10 39 4 39 4.41 4.00 OUT
Denis Gizatullin 16 67 7 66 4.36 3.94

Niels K Iversen 15 73 9 164 9.48 8.99
Simon Stead 8 31 11 49 7.74 6.32
Rory Schlein 14 68 11 109 7.06 6.41
Richie Worrall 8 48 11 70 6.75 5.83
Seb Alden 15 73 15 98 6.19 5.37
Andrej Lebedev 3 15 1 12 3.47 3.20
Nicklas Porsing 1 5 1 3 3.20 2.40

Peter Karlsson 16 76 11 153 8.63 8.05
Davey Watt 15 67 7 132 8.30 7.88
Lewis Bridger 17 72 14 113 7.06 6.28
Piotr Swiderski 17 74 10 116 6.81 6.27
Sebastian Ulamek 6 26 5 39 6.77 6.00
Richard Lawson 14 62 17 79 6.19 5.10
Kevin Doolan 5 20 6 19 5.00 3.80

Kenneth Bjerre 15 73 9 143 8.33 7.84
Kenni Larsen 14 65 9 118 7.82 7.26 OUT
Linus Sundstrom 12 51 12 72 6.59 5.65 OUT
Ryan Fisher 15 64 5 89 5.88 5.56
Dakota North 15 69 12 82 5.45 4.75
Patrick Hougaard 14 61 9 65 4.85 4.26
Nicolai Klindt 8 32 6 20 3.25 2.50 OUT

Chris Holder 17 85 8 198 9.69 9.32
Darcy Ward 8 34 4 68 8.47 8.00
Przemyslaw Pawlicki 4 16 1 30 7.75 7.50 OUT
Maciej Janowski 17 84 9 145 7.33 6.90
Rohan Tungate 17 81 20 92 5.53 4.54
Josh Grajczonek 4 20 2 21 4.60 4.20
Dawid Stachyra 13 56 9 54 4.50 3.86 OUT
Thomas H Jonasson 2 7 1 6 4.00 3.43
Micky Dyer 5 21 4 14 3.43 2.67
Robert Miskowiak 2 6 0 0 0.00 0.00 OUT

Hans Andersen 10 48 8 118 10.50 9.83
Peter Kildemand 15 71 11 141 8.56 7.94
Troy Batchelor 16 73 9 147 8.55 8.05
Edward Kennett 16 69 18 116 7.77 6.72
Kyle Howarth 3 13 1 19 6.15 5.85
Nick Morris 13 53 10 67 5.81 5.06
Kacper Gomolski 13 63 18 63 5.14 4.00 OUT
Ashley Birks 11 47 3 45 4.09 3.83

Fredrik Lindgren 17 85 16 201 10.21 9.46
Tai Woffinden 15 73 15 170 10.14 9.32
Ty Proctor 9 37 17 64 8.76 6.92
Adam Skornicki 19 88 16 137 6.95 6.23
Ricky Wells 19 85 13 112 5.88 5.27
Ludvig Lindgren 18 92 21 113 5.83 4.91
Jacob Thorssell 19 89 20 92 5.03 4.13

[DJ]

Don't agree with you that because smolonski and proctor have improved it represents a flaw in the rolling average system. Teams should not benefit by being able to bring in a high average replacement for someone who has had a short term run of good form nor be penalised in not being able to replace someone who has lost form. I think the rolling average is fairer even though wolves would have benefitted with regard to proctor.

[T.N.T]

I agree in principle to the rolling averages, but being over 28 matches means riders like Adam SKORNICKI are still holding scores fro the 2010 season !!

Also when a team has a rider like Smolinski or Proctor who are riding much better than their rolling average suggests, it really hits those teams hard when they have to miss meetings.


Maybe once a rider has ridden 6 home and 6 away meetings in the current season can use only scores for that season. It may not alter too much but with Adam, if he scores 13 points from his next two meetings (10 rides) .... his average will go up because three years ago he scored 9 points from 8 rides !!



It atill stops teams signing 5+ riders like Meidzinski and replacing them soon after with an 8+ rider.